Apple’s proposed ‘link-out’ commission is the new tax you have to model, not just argue about

Original post (source): TechCrunch, “Apple proposes to take a 15% cut of purchases made outside the App Store” (Aug 14, 2026)

• https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/14/apple-proposes-to-take-a-15-cut-of-purchases-made-outside-the-app-store/

What TechCrunch says Apple proposed

According to the report, Apple filed a proposal in the Northern District of California outlining commissions for purchases made through external links inside iOS apps:

• 15% for “standard apps”
• 5% for developers in the Small Business Program
• 10% for developers in certain partner programs (Video Partner, News Partner, Mini Apps Partner)
• 10% for subscription renewals (per the filing described)

The article frames this as part of the ongoing Epic Games vs. Apple dispute and related court oversight.

Why this matters to app marketers

If you are considering link-out payments, the question is no longer “can we do it?”. It becomes:

• What margin do we actually keep after fees, payment processing, fraud, tax handling, and support overhead.
• What happens to conversion when checkout leaves the app.
• What breaks in measurement (web to app stitching, attribution, cohort LTV).

Tiny win

Before anyone touches design, build a one-page “link-out model”:

1. Current in-app purchase margin and conversion.
2. Link-out conversion penalty assumption (best, base, worst).
3. Net margin assumption with a 15% fee scenario.
4. A support risk list (refunds, chargebacks, failed payments, account confusion).

If the numbers do not work on paper, they will not work in production.